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BruceBall vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Preview
By rbk | December 28, 2008
UPDATE: It seems that Travis Bureau is not going to play and that J.P. Prince probably will. Big, big news. I won’t revise the score prediction but I think UT’s bench should play a lot of minutes with Bureau out of the game.
The last several weeks have provided Coach Bruce Pearl and his staff with ample mid-season instructional time, and have also allowed some contributors to heal minor injuries– particularly J.P. Prince, who hasn’t played since the December 3rd contest with UNC-Asheville. The Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana-Lafayette provide one last mid-major tuneup before an early January gauntlet: an 11 day stretch that includes games at Kansas and at home against Gonzaga and Kentucky, with an SEC road opener at Georgia in there for good measure.
Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL from now on) has seen better days as a basketball program, winning just 41 games in three and a half seasons since a 2005 NCAA tourney appearance. Last season the Cajuns went 15-15 and went out in the first game of the Sun Belt tournament despite a late season push to propel them to a .500 record. The good news for ULL is that they return a lot of young contributors from that team; the bad news is that their performance doesn’t seem to be much better so far this season. They are off to a 4-6 start, with their best performance an overtime win over Oral Roberts at home. On the road they are 0-2 with losses to Utah Valley (by 30) and Alabama (by 17).
Who they’ve got: ULL is led by sophomore wing Travis Bureau (6′7″, 16.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 46.8% 3FG). His O-rating of 130.6 ranks him 27th nationally, making him one of the most formidable offensive opponents the Vols have faced this year. He is shooting over 64% inside the arc and nearly 50% from three, and ranks in the top 20 nationally in eFG% as a result. He’s remarkably efficient, also ranking very highly in taking care of the ball (13th in TO rate). According to the ULL site he was expected to redshirt a year ago but played out of necessity and is developing into a heck of a player. He did miss ULL’s last game vs. Sam Houston State with a groin injury, but he is expected to start vs. the Vols.
Also starting for ULL are Tyren Johnson (6′8″ Jr forward, 9.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, #74 in block rate), Chris Gradnigo (6′7″ So forward, 10.7 PPG), Colby Batiste (6′9″ So center, 3.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, #54 in block rate), and Ryan McCoy (6′0″ Jr PG, 9.0 PPG, 3.0 APG). They have started several different lineups so far this season, so this is subject to change. Also likely to play are La’Ryan Gary (6′7″ Jr wing, 7.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG), Willie Lago (6′1″ Jr guard, 3.3 PPG), Jeremy Barr (6′9″ Jr forward, 5.1 PPG), Lamar Roberson (6′8″ Jr forward, 8.8 PPG), and Corey Bloom (6′6″ Jr wing, 1.9 PPG). All have played substantial minutes due to some early suspensions and injuries. Senior Emmanuel Adeife (6′10″ 2.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG) may play as well, having appeared in all four games since serving a six game suspension.
What the Ragin’ Cajuns do well: Defensively the Cajuns are upper 50% at least, ranking 144th in efficiency. They do this mainly by shutting down the inside (38th in 2FG% allowed), led by a very effective shotblocking front line (15th in block rate).
Offensively there is not a lot of positive information to report. Because of their size they get very few shots blocked (7th), and they do a reasonable job of taking care of the ball (119th in TO%).
Where ULL struggles: Offensively they struggle as a team tremendously, ranking 300th in efficiency despite the terrific numbers from Bureau. Let that sink in for just a minute; Bureau is a top 30 offensive player and takes 27% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, yet the team ranks 300th in the nation offensively. That gives you an indication of how much the rest of the team struggles. They don’t shoot well (241st in eFG), don’t rebound (299th), don’t hit threes (249th), twos (224th), or free throws (298th), and are abysmal at creating shots with passes (337th in A/FGM). The shooting from three is especially bad when you remove Bureau’s 29 for 62 line.
Defensively they don’t rebound well (240th), foul a lot (297th in FT rate allowed), give up threes (223rd), and don’t force many turnovers (194th). From looking at the makeup of the roster, my guess is that a good portion of their struggles in perimeter defense and in rebounding is due to a lack of quickness. They have a roster full of 6′7″, 6′8″, and 6′9″ players and they just can’t keep up with quicker wings and post players.
Gameplan and style: ULL works at a fairly slow pace (198th in adjusted tempo), and has lost both games played at a tempo above 70 (at home to Lamar and North Texas). If Tennessee can keep the tempo up it can force its advantage in speed– an advantage the Vols will rarely have this year. Coach Pearl has said repeatedly that this Tennessee team will not be able to force tempo, but an adjusted tempo of nearly 74 possessions speaks to the contrary. The Vols have played just two games under 70 possessions (68 apiece).
Size is pretty much a push. The Cajun PGs are both smaller than Maze, but not appreciably so. Their wings are tall and rangy, like Tennessee’s, and their forwards are all in the 6′7″ to 6′9″ range. Tyler Smith may give up an inch or two to a defender on occasion, but Brian Williams and Wayne Chism will be at least as tall as their foes. One very, very interesting matchup will be at the three. Tennessee essentially plays a perimeter player there (Tabb, Tatum, Woolridge, Prince) while ULL plays a true forward, with their wings almost exclusively at the two. Tennessee’s three won’t be at a size disadvantage but may be forced to defend closer to the basket. On the other end one would think our three will have a big advantage playing away from the basket. That will be an area to watch.
Once again (and it seems I say this every preview) Tennessee’s wings will be forced to guard a rangy, quick, hot-shooting wing. Bureau is a tough guard and I think we will see Tabb and Prince (assuming he plays) on him as much as is reasonable. With Hopson, Tatum, and Woolridge too often losing a man on the perimeter, Bureau may score some points. This may be the sort of game where Pearl decides to guard the star straight up, letting him have his points, while leaving the 4-on-4 defense of the remaining Cajuns as a big advantage for the Vols.
At least this time around we aren’t up against a bunch of seniors. Like Tennessee, ULL has no seniors in its regular rotation unless Adeife gets substantial PT. I suspect the Vols are eager for a matchup like this, with experience a push.
How it will play out: This sets up as a runaway for Tennessee. The Vols may return a key player (Prince, though he’s still considered questionable) and the Ragin’ Cajuns’ star is a little banged up. ULL has shown little promise offensively outside of Bureau, and their passing is among the worst nationally. It sets up very well for Tennessee to match up man-to-man and force Bureau to hang 50 to beat them. There is a tremendous advantage in athleticism in orange, and our wings (as well as Tyler Smith) should have open looks and open drives at times if they are willing to be patient yet aggressive. This is not the game to attack the post with abandon, as that is the one area ULL has done a solid job defending. Wayne Chism and Brian Williams must be patient and understand that garbage points are where they can make their living against a poor rebounding team. Bureau provides a challenge but it would be hard for him to beat us by himself, so unless ULL can find another player to step up and hit shots, it could be a really long day for the Cajuns. Pythag predicts a 28 point margin; I think it could go higher than that. My prediction: Vols 82, UL 50.
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