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BruceBall vs. Marquette preview
By rbk | December 15, 2008
I really didn’t expect to be coming off a loss headed into this game. I think we are all a bit disappointed by the performance against Temple on Saturday, and we may learn a bit more about what this team is made of tomorrow night when the Vols square off with the Golden Eagles of Marquette (9:30 pm, ESPN).
Part of the SEC/Big East Invitational, the game is the second of a double-header in the Sommet Center in Nashville and will follow a matchup between Vanderbilt and South Florida. Marquette (pythag: 67th) enters the game at 8-1 following home wins over Central Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne. Its lone loss came to Dayton on a semi-neutral floor in Northern Illinois during the Chicago Invitational Challenge. Tomorrow’s game will be Marquette’s first true road game, having played two games less than 100 miles from home in the CIC and the other six games at home in Milwaukee. The Golden Eagles are coached by first year man Buzz Williams, who took over when Tom Crean was hired at Indiana. Williams was an assistant under Crean and was previously head coach at New Orleans, compiling a 14-17 record.
Who they have: It begins in the backcourt for Marquette, and all three starters are seniors: PG Dominic James (5′11″, 11.3 PPG, 6.0 APG), wing Jerel McNeal (6′3″, 18.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.0 APG, 39.1% 3FG), and wing Wesley Matthews (6′5″, 19.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.0 APG). Joining this dangerous threesome is a frontcourt tandem of Lazar Hayward (6′6″ Jr., 16.1 PPG, 10.6 RPG) and Dwight Burke (6′8″ Sr., 2.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG), completing an undersized but experienced and athletic starting lineup.
Coming off the bench for significant minutes will be guards Maurice Acker (5′8″ Jr., 4.1 PPG) and David Cubillan (6′0″ Jr., 3.9 PPG), wing Jimmy Butler (6′6″ So., 3.9 PPG), and forward Patrick Hazel (6′7″ So., 3.6 PPG). This nine-man rotation consists of four seniors, three juniors, and two sophomores, and Marquette will lean on this experience when facing younger teams like Tennessee.
What Marquette does well: They handle the basketball well, ranking 56th in TO% and 70th in A/FGM. They also get to the line (11th) and score in the paint (48th in 2FG%), rounding out an offense that is pretty efficient (74th in Oeff). They are a very strong rebounding team on both ends, ranking 16th offensively and 82nd defensively.
Defensively they guard the perimeter well (47th in D3FG%) and rank highly in steals (58th), and are above average (though not outstanding) in several other areas. Overall the defense is solid (79th in Deff). At a glance it seems their guards are better defenders than their post players are.
Where the Golden Eagles struggle: They aren’t good perimeter shooters (31.4%, 239th nationally), good news for a Tennessee team that has been lit up from the perimeter in two of the last three games. Their defense in the paint leaves a little to be desired, as they allow opponents to shoot 47.7% (162nd) on twos. They don’t get many blocks either, not surprising from a fairly small team. They have no other major weaknesses, but as I said above they are just okay at a lot of things on both ends of the floor.
Gameplan/style:: Marquette has been playing an up-tempo game, ranking 33rd in the nation in pace at 72.5 possessions per game. With three senior guards they are able to do this without getting sloppy, something Tennessee has struggled with in the early stages of this season. Offensively they do most of their damage inside the arc, shooting threes just 32.3% of the time, but they do have five players that average at least two 3FG attempts per game, including forward Lazar Hayward. They simply pick their moments, and so far they haven’t done a lot of damage from the perimeter. Defensively the play primarily man-to-man but against a Tennessee team that has been inconsistent from the perimeter I wouldn’t be surprised to see them change to a zone at least once.
There are three big areas of difference between the makeup these two teams, and I see Tennessee having an edge in two of them. Marquette has a major edge in experience, sporting a nine-deep that features seven upperclassmen and four seniors. Tennessee’s rotation, by comparison, has no seniors and features five players new to the UT team.
The edge in height goes to UT, however, at each and every position. The guards and wings in Marquette’s rotation go 5′11″, 6′3″, 6′5″, 5′8″, 6″0″, and 6′6″. Only Bobby Maze and Josh Tabb could potentially get a defensive assignment against a taller player, but both will likely guard Marquette’s point guards instead, and both are under six feet. In the post, Tyler Smith has an inch on Lazar Hayward and at least an inch on every wing, while Wayne Chism and Brian Williams will be matched up with nobody taller than 6′8″.
Depth is Tennessee’s other edge, especially in the post. Marquette does go nine-deep but four of its starters average at least 28 MPG, and that’s against mostly weak competition. Against Wisconsin the bench played just 25 of 200 minutes and every starter played at least 30 minutes; in the loss to Dayton the bench played 51 minutes but only due to Marquette’s foul trouble. By comparison, Tennessee just has one player (Tyler Smith) averaging more than 28 minutes, and beyond him only Bobby Maze (26.8) is averaging above 25 minutes.
I mentioned post depth specifically and this will be the key to the gameplan. Tennessee has three post players (Smith, Chism, Williams) who I think can really hurt Marquette in the post at both ends, and getting them the basketball early and often might both wear down Burke and Hayward and get them in foul trouble. The only other post option is Hazel and at 6′7″ his size could be exploited. The only thing Tennessee has to be careful about is perimeter mismatches; Marquette will play essentially four guards at times, especially if the post has foul trouble. That could be good or bad for UT, depending on whether our post players can step up.
How it will play out: This is the game where we need to see the Wayne Chism that everyone believes can emerge from the frustrated, seemingly invisible player we too often see on the court wearing #4. Chism has all the tools and against a team with Marquette’s lack of size, he can be a dominant player on both ends if he’s into the game. Keeping out of foul trouble will be crucial for him. Tyler Smith will have a matchup with Lazar Hayward, who plays a bit bigger than his 6′6″ frame. Tyler will have to be strong defensively and on the glass, where Hayward does a lot of damage. On the offensive end I think he needs to be as aggressive as ever, going right at Hayward to try and get him in foul trouble. With Hayward on the bench the Golden Eagles have very little post offense.
Once again, this will be a game where Tennessee’s wings will be tested defensively. The good news is that Marquette does not shoot from three that well; the bad news is that Tennessee has lately been a team that’s very easy to start a new streak against. Wide open threes can kill you no matter the opponent, so closing out on shooters will have to be better. More importantly, though, is stopping dribble penetration and preventing easy second passes. Since Marquette scores so much inside, Tennessee will need to shut down the ball and prevent easy looks. That’s been easier said than done with all the youth at wing.
I think Tennessee gets back on track in this game. Marquette is solid, but they have not been tested on the road yet, and they haven’t played a team with the athleticism that Tennessee brings to the floor. Between the pace and the press and Tennessee’s depth, I think there is some question as to how much Marquette will have in the tank late in the game. If the Vols can keep it close while being aggressive in the paint, I think they can pull one out in the last 10 minutes of the game. My prediction: Vols 88, Golden Eagles 82.
Topic: Uncategorized | Tags: Game Previews
December 15th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
rbk, I really hope you are right. We are shaken, a bit, after watching what the Zags and Temple did to us. We are getting some great experience away from TBA and that has to help later in the season, provided we respond well to it.
I am pretty tired of playing experienced teams with solid guard play. These guys play hard. It should be a war on the boards. If Brian and Chism play soft and small again, we could get killed.
I want to see Tatum, Hopson or Woolridge want the shot and I want Chism to pass up every three unless it is totally within the flow of the offense. In other words, Chism should pass up 90% of the threes he has taken. We have so much potential. I cannot wait for the light to go on!
The Wisconsin game summary gives a pretty good idea of what to watch out for.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/90210-golden-eagles-badgers-wisconsin-blows-it-late-loses-to-marquette
December 15th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
I am the eternal optimist when it comes to BruceBall, Pete. Can’t help it. I’m probably viewing this game through orange-colored glasses, as I usually do. But even on paper I like this game for us.
We need some toughness, inside and out. We’ve been outphysicaled, if that were a word, too much lately. Wayne and Brian have to finish with toughness and everyone has to rebound with toughness. Display that, and we win.
December 15th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I just have to believe the Vols will beat this team. For this game, size trumps experience — specially when combined with effort and heart! This game will turn around our recent fortunes and put us back on track. Go Chiz!
December 17th, 2008 at 2:05 am
I would just like to congratulate you on having on of the most accurate pregame plans ever. The Chism we saw tonight is what we will need to do something impressive this season. Tyler and Maze will do what it is needed, but we will need a third person to play consistently well to be an impressive team.
December 17th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
The Vols made me look smart last night, Navy.
I’m just proud of Wayne for really bringing it. Hopefully it will be a confidence builder.