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BruceBall vs. UT-Martin Preview
By rbk | November 17, 2008
After Tennessee took care of Chattanooga Saturday night, it had to immediately turn its attention to another University of Tennessee campus and its basketball team: the UT-Martin Skyhawks. Martin rolls into Knoxville Tuesday night (7pm, SportSouth), giving the Vols just 2 days to rest, scout, and prepare.
The Skyhawks opened their 2008-2009 season with a 121-56 rout of Division II Maryville (MO) University. They were picked by the coaches to finish second in the Ohio Valley Conference, just a few points behind favorite Murray State. They are the second in-state opponent in a row to be expected to challenge for a conference title, and Middle Tennessee will be a third when the Vols face them later this week. Martin is coming off a 17-16 season and a 4th place OVC finish, and is coached by 10th-year man Bret Campbell.
Who they have: Martin returns nearly everyone from last year, losing only senior forward Gerald Robinson. The rest of the roster returns, including OVC player-of-the-year Lester Hudson (25.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.8 SPG, 38.8% 3FG, 83.4% FT). Hudson, a 6′2″ senior guard, is widely considered to be a future NBA player, and will be a major challenge for whichever Vol lines up against him. He is joined by backcourt mates Marquis Weddle (6′1″ Sophomore, 17.1 PPG) and M.J. Brown (6′0″ freshman, invited as walkon to UTK) to pose a formidable threat to guards across the OVC. The front line will consist of Djero Riedewald (6′8″ Senior, 5.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Eric Massey (6′9″ Jr., transfer from McNeese St.).
There is no doubt that the biggest threat comes from Hudson, who had a ridiculous stat line against Maryville: 27 points, eight steals, seven rebounds and seven assists. He is a phenomenal talent that will dominate the OVC and give every team on UTM’s schedule fits. It will help him tremendously to have talent around him in the backcourt, and Weddle and Brown fit the bill (38 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists combined against Maryville). The front line is a question mark, having a bit less experience and not being as threatening on the offensive end.
What they do well: Martin won games last year on the offensive end, ranking 155th nationally with a 102.7 adjusted efficiency. The top four most efficient offensive players return for them (Hudson, Riedewald, Olajide Hay, and Weddle), so I would expect them to keep gunning offensively. Specifically they were adept at protecting the ball (74th in TO%) and shooting inside the arc (50.7% 2FG, 79th).
Defensively they did a great job of keeping opponents off the foul line (28.4% FTR, 32nd nationally), but as we’ll see . . . not much else.
Where UTM struggles: Defense. They ranked 326th out of 336 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency (113.9), worse than 250th in five other defensive categories (eFG, D-rebounding, TO forced, 2FG%, block %) and no better than 150th in any other category except the aforementioned free throw rate. It seems that the Skyhawks have sacrificed defensive intensity and energy, saving it so they can explode more efficiently on the other end. Unfortunately for UTM fans, this means they allowed the other team more than a point per possession in 23 of 33 games. That is why they finished 17-16 despite their explosive backcourt.
Gameplan/style: Martin plays at a pretty quick pace, averaging 69.9 possessions per game (68th) in 2007-2008. With the addition of M.J. Brown and the return of Hudson and Weddle and weakness in the front line, I would say Martin would try to push the pace higher this season to avoid halfcourt mismatches inside. Against Maryville the tempo was extreme: an astounding 88 possessions. We thought our game with UTC was fast!
If Saturday is any indication, this Tennessee team will be happy to let Martin play quickly. The biggest difference between UTC and UTM, however, is that UTM can play up-tempo without turning the ball over. Last year they ranked highly in protecting the ball and against Maryville just turned the ball over 10 times in 88 possessions. That’s exceptional. Tennessee better be prepared to play this game on even footing, shots-wise, because Martin won’t be as generous with the ball as Chattanooga was.
The Skyhawks will attack primarily on the perimeter and will take a ton of threes (44.9% of FGA last year). Against Maryville, Hudson and Weddle took 34 of the team’s 70 shots despite both playing less than 30 minutes. When they are in the game, they will be shooting. Tennessee needs to be ready for that. Last year was very much the same for UTM, with Weddle in the top 200 in percentage of team shots taken and Hudson in the top 10. Hudson was one of the most highly utilized players in the nation, ending 32.4% of his team’s possessions when he was on the floor. Combined with his 116.2 O-rating, that means Hudson is among the most prolific offensive players in the nation.
The Vols’ mode of attack should be easy to see: use your height! Tennessee is taller at every position on the floor and should be able to score in the lane with relative ease against the undersized Skyhawks. Defensively they need to use that length to challenge perimeter shots and get into the passing lanes, making ball movement difficult. Hudson and Weddle will both try to drive as well, as both attempted a lot of 2-point shots a year ago in addition to their threes. Our guards will need to stay in front of them.
How it will go down: Inevitably it won’t go as well as UTC did. I don’t think that performance will be the norm this early in the season for Tennessee, unless it shows maturity beyond its years. Martin is another experienced team with good guards, and they will push tempo and protect the ball. Don’t be surprised or alarmed if Martin scores in the 80s or 90s; with a ton of possessions and an efficient offense it could easily happen. The Skyhawks will score and Hudson and Weddle will get theirs.
However, Martin was atrocious a year ago defensively and Tennessee’s 134 efficiency a game ago should really scare any Skyhawk fan. UTC was a far better defensive team and gave up 115 points in 85 possessions; what will UTM give up, especially if the pace is faster? I don’t think we can do much better than the 134 we put up against Chattanooga, but our efficiency should be high; if not, we should be a little concerned with inconsistency. As long as we attack the lane and the glass, we should score virtually at will. If we settle for too many jumpers, we could get ourselves in trouble.
In the end, I think Tyler and Wayne have big games and one of our wings will dominate with his size– probably Hopson, Prince, or Tatum. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2 or 3 guys challenge the 20 point mark. This will be a high-scoring, run-and-gun affair, and I hope Saturday showed that this UT team will excel in that environment. My prediction: Vols 110, Skyhawks 88 in another 85 possession game.
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