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« Hall to sign today; Woolridge to start? | Home | Tennessee 114, Chattanooga 75 »
BruceBall vs. Chattanooga Preview
By rbk | November 13, 2008
After more than seven months of waiting, BruceBall is finally here again. The Vols open up the 2008-2009 non-conference schedule with the UT-Chattanooga Mocs on Saturday (7pm, SportSouth). I think they like to be called just “Chattanooga” these days, so I’ll try to oblige.
Chattanooga comes into 2008-2009 returning a strong team that should compete for the Southern Conference title. They are the favorite to win the conference’s North Division, with Stephen Curry’s Davidson Wildcats picked to win the South. The Mocs went 18-13 last season with a 13-7 record in the SoCon. They are coached by John Shulman, who is in his fifth season as head coach of the Mocs. Two of Shulman’s four teams have won their division and he’s hoping to finally win the conference tournament and earn an NCAA bid. For those who remember, Shulman was the head coach of the Chattanooga team that beat Buzz Peterson’s Vols in 2004. That was the beginning of the end for Peterson.
Who they have: The Mocs have two preseason All-SoCon players in SG Stephen McDowell (5′11″, 14.3 PPG, 36.9% 3FG) and PF Nicchaeus Doaks (6′7″, 14.1 PPG, 7.1RPG, 58.8% FG, 36.0% 3FG), both seniors. Also returning to start for the Mocs is senior center Khalil Hartwell (6′8″, 6.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG). The starter at SF will likely be senior Kevin Goffney (6′5″, 6.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG), while senior Keyron Sheard (6′2″) will man the point. If you’re counting, all five starters are seniors.
McDowell is the player I fear on this team. His O-rating of 105.5 is not great, but he is a chucker and hit 109 threes last season. Doaks is a far more efficient player (113.1 O-rating, top 300 nationally) but we have experience in the post and I feel we can at least slow him down. McDowell, at 5′11″, may be guarded by somebody 6-8″ taller than him. That’s good for challenging his shots, but I fear he will be too quick for us at times. The Mocs have a 7-footer that may come off the bench in sophomore Jeremy Saffore. It will be interesting to see Chism, Williams, and Negedu guard him.
What Chattanooga does well: Since the Mocs return so many contributors I would expect then to perform similarly and probably better than a year ago in most categories. They were a good rebounding team last year, ranking 72nd and 31st nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding, respectively. Shooting was also a strength, finishing 100th in eFG% and 25th in 2FG%. They did a great job getting to the line, ranking 21st nationally in FT rate; likewise, they did a good job keeping their opponents off the line, ranking 43rd in defensive FT rate.
Where the Mocs struggle: While Chattanooga did a great job getting to the line, they were not so great once there, hitting just 65.8%. Also of concern for them is the propensity to shoot threes (40% of FGA) and not hit them especially often (32.9% 3FG). Their biggest problem though, especially with Tennessee as the opponent, is turnovers. They were very turnover prone a year ago (24.7%, 320th nationally) and did not do a good job of forcing them on the opponent (222nd in TO% forced). Over the course of the season, the Mocs turned the ball over 80 more times than their opponents, an average margin of -2.6. Tennessee, meanwhile, was 21st in forcing turnovers and really wrecked their opponents in exhibitions, forcing both UIndy and Tusculum into more than one TO in every three possessions.
Gameplan/style: Coach Shulman has the Mocs running and gunning, averaging 73.9 possessions per game adjusted for opponent a year ago. That’s good enough for 9th nationally, and is actually a full possession and a half faster than the Vols’ pace a year ago. Interestingly, that’s a bit of a change from prior years; the Mocs ran a more moderate pace in Shulman’s first three years at the helm. With so many players back, don’t be surprised to see them continue playing up-tempo. With a strong player at wing (McDowell) and another in the post (Doaks), they have options about where to attack the Vols. The stats say they will attack more from the perimeter, though; note their team propensity to shoot threes, and add to that McDowell’s very high utility (he took 27% of their shots while he was on the floor) and I would guess we will see them attack from the wings liberally. McDowell’s utility is probably good for them, though, as he was by far the least turnover prone player on the team a year ago.
Tennessee will do what it always does, playing as fast as its opponent will allow. In this case the Mocs are likely to oblige. Unfortunately for Tennessee this may be the rare occasion that such a pace will favor the other team. With so many newcomers, it’s going to take some time before these Vols learn to play fast without playing sloppy. The Mocs, while a sloppy team last year, are experienced and the veterans know how to play up-tempo. It will be interesting to see how the teams perform at a very high pace, which I fully expect in this game.
The Vols must be careful to box out and crash the boards, as that is an area where the Mocs have excelled and this young UT team has not, at least in the exhibition games. If Chatanooga has a big edge in rebounding it may mean trouble for UT. Offensively, I expect UT to hit them hard with its long, rangy wings, taking advantage of a substantial gap in size and athleticism. If Hopson, Tatum, and Woolridge do not attack the basket I will be disappointed. Defensively Tennessee will just play its game. The Mocs have been willing to turn the ball over and it’s hard for aveteran team to break habits. That is where Tennessee will look to win the game, achieving more shots despite not dominating the glass.
How it will play out: I’m a little nervous. The Vols are young and inexperienced and are facing a veteran team in their opener. While the Vols have a big talent edge, there simply hasn’t been enough time for them to be used to the college game, not to mention the high pace and defensive demands that Bruce will put on them. Add to that Chattanooga’s strength on the glass and UT’s failures there so far and we could be in trouble if our offense isn’t clicking.
With that said, I expect to win this game with a really strong first half. I think the freshmen for UT will come out blazing, not fully knowing that they should be worried about the opponent and the intricacies of the game. I would not be surprised to see as much as a 20 point halftime lead. In the second half, I see complacency, just as we saw against Tusculum a week ago. The defensive intensity won’t be there, and the Mocs will find their game a little bit, dominating the glass and getting back into the game. By the time the clock reads 5:00, the game may be in question. It is how the young guys respond to that pressure (and how well the veterans can lead them) that will determine how well this Tennessee team will fare in the early part of the season. I think they will respond well, pulling Tennessee back to a more comfortable win at home. I hope I’m wrong and that we put two good halves together, but I think this team will need time for the urgency to be realized. Thankfully our raw talent and Bruce’s sideline coaching will be enough in this game. My call: Vols 88, Mocs 76.
Topic: Uncategorized | Tags: Game Previews
November 13th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
hey hey!
game previews!
thanks man, we sure do need the bruceball blog this year
can’t wait to see these freshmen as well as tyler’s development this season
November 13th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Grr8 preview, as always! YEOUCH! They’re a senior-laden team, and we have all those fresh faces! You sure know how to make a guy worry!
But like you I think the sheer TALENT will burn the Mocs. Go BRUUUUUCE! Still can’t believe how lucky UT is to have that guy!
November 14th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Would have been nice to start with a couple directional schools to get these new faces some more game experience. I think this experienced Chattanooga team will prove to be a very formidable first opponent. I will be interested to see how the minutes get divided up. Also saw where Brian Williams may be pushing Chism some at the 5 spot. Interesting if true…
November 14th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Great preview!
This should be a good contest for the Vols to open with. Being from Chattanooga, and growing up a Mocs fan, I’ll sort of be cheering for both sides, in that I certainly don’t want the Vols to lose, but I can’t root against the Mocs either. It’s a good thing this one is in Knoxville though, for the Vols. If this year’s were in Chattanooga, it would have some serious upset potential.
No matter how this turns out I think this is a good opener for the Vols, it will be a good experience for the new guys, going against a solid veteran team, that can hang in there despite inferior athleticism, and has nothing to lose.
I really like this as an opener, although I’m admittedly biased, and I think it would be pretty neat if the Vols opened against the Mocs every year, making it an annual thing just like a UT-Memphis game.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
In response to Craig, I think Brian should be pushing Wayne at the 5. Wayne is such a frustrating player because of his inconsistency. He spends too much time at the 3 line and not enough time posting up and banging for rebounds. I hope he comes out on Saturday with some fire or Brian could be getting a lot more minutes.
November 15th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
You hit the points scored by the Mocs… good call.
I don’t think anybody saw 100+ points coming.
Bobby Maze is far better than I expected, and I expected him to be pretty good.