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BruceBall vs. Kentucky Preview
By rbk | January 12, 2009
Once SEC season kicked off with UGA, it was hard not to look ahead to this game with most hated foe Kentucky. Tennessee and Kentucky have split every year under Coach Pearl so far, a mild disappointment for UT fans since many of us have felt the better team has been in Knoxville for the last couple of years. Isn’t it nice for a split with Kentucky to be disappointing? Not that long ago one win every other year was probably considered overachieving.
This Kentucky team is young (287th in minutes-weighted experience) and tall (3rd in minutes-weighted height), much like the Vols. Like the Vols, the Wildcats entered play with four non-conference losses and won their season opener. A big difference so far, though, is in strength of schedule. Kentucky has played just four games away from home: UNC (L) and Louisville (L) on the road and Kansas State (W) and West Virginia (W) at neutral sites. Among UK’s 12 opponents at home, only Miami (L) and Vandy (W) are ranked better than 100th in pythag and after that only VMI (L) and Lamar (W) are ranked better than 200. The other 8 opponents have an average rank of 278th, contributing greatly to UK’s overall schedule strength ranking of 205th. The Vols, by comparison, have played away from Knoxville more times (8) than not (6) and have an overall schedule ranking of 7th.
It’s easy to get carried away with the schedule strength and assume that UK’s 12-4 record inflates its ability, when in fact it may not. The Wildcats are rated 29th in pythag, just two spots behind Tennessee, and have two very nice neutral floor wins. They’ve played solid basketball in the majority of their games really underperforming just once (in the home loss to VMI). Too many fans are taking this UK team for granted, but I feel confident that Bruce will not let the team do the same.
Who they’ve got: Kentucky is led by Jodie Meeks (6′4″ JR wing, 24.2 PPG, 41.9% 3FG) and Patrick Patterson (6′9″ SO forward, 18.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 70.9% FG), who are the only wildcats averaging double figures in scoring. Also starting will be point guard Michael Porter (6′3″ JR, 3.8 PPG, 2.9 APG) and forward Perry Stevenson (6′9″ JR, 7.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.4 BPG). The other spot has seen some rotation, with Ramon Harris, Kevin Galloway, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins all having started at least one game. My money would be on Harris (6′7″ JR forward, 7.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG) getting the not against Tennessee after making the most of his start against Vanderbilt.
Off the bench are the aforementioned Liggins (6′6″ FR wing, 6.1 PPG, 3.6 APG, 19.7 MPG) and Miller (6′7″ FR wing, 3.7 PPG, 19.2 MPG) as well as Josh Harrelson (6′10″ SO center, 5.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 12.6 MPG). These three have played in every game and we can expect to see them tomorrow night. AJ Stewart (6′7″ SO forward, 6.6 MPG) will likely play some and Kevin Galloway (6′7″ JR guard, 7.3 MPG) may make an appearance, though he sat out the Vandy game inexplicably. I expect to see UK try to stay at eight-deep unless foul trouble warrants going deeper.
Obviously Meeks and Patterson are where it starts for UK, combining for more than half of the points and each averaging more than 30 minutes of play per game. In a tight game it wouldn’t be surprising to see either play all 40 minutes. Though both are very good players, Patterson is the one that really gets it done, ranking third in the nation in O-rating and second in eFG%. A highly efficient player, Patterson is much more likely to score than not when he touches the ball– and getting him touches is key for UK. Meeks, by contrast, touches the ball on pretty much every possession, and shoots far more than his share of the time. He ends UK’s possessions more than 35% of the time when he’s in the game, either by shot or turnover, making him one of the most highly utilized players in the country. He still manages to be pretty efficient (262nd in O-rating), largely due to phenomenal outside shooting.
What the Wildcats do well: Offensively, Kentucky is pretty solid (49th in efficiency) and this is led by some outstanding shooting inside the arc (4th in 2FG%) and at the line (6th in FT%). It helps their cause that they get to the line frequently (71st in FT rate). They are also proficient at setting each other up, ranking 22nd in A/FGM.
Defensively they are strong (27th) and are led by the post defense of Patterson, Stevenson, Harrelson, and Harris. As a team, they allow just 38.5% shooting from within the arc, good for third nationally, and also rank third in shots blocked. They also do a good job preventing offensive boards (54th) and don’t allow easy shots to be set up (17th in Opp. A/FGM).
Where Kentucky struggles: Offensively the glaring weakness is in turnovers, with UK losing the ball on 24.3% of possessions (312th). They are also just average offensive rebounders (119th) and below average from behind the arc (185th). Once you get beyond Meeks, they shoot just 25.5% from three.
Defensively the only issue has been the lack of turnovers forced (173rd), which, combined with their offensive turnover issues, has resulted in opponents shooting from the field more than Kentucky has.
Gameplan and style: You may not recognize this Kentucky team. Last year’s Wildcats had little depth and leaned heavily on two senior guards (Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford). The strategy in several big games was to hold the ball as long as possible and to rely on these guards to beat their defender late in the shot clock, resulting in very slow games (285th in tempo). This years team is running more, and with Meeks firing away, is also shooting earlier in the clock. The result is a much faster pace (65th), which may be very good news for Tennessee. Last year’s clock-killing really hurt Tennessee’s rhythm.
Most of Kentucky’s damage is done inside the arc and at the line, with just 30.6% of points coming from threes. Even Meeks, their best sharpshooter, does almost as much shooting from the inside as he does from the outside, and with Patterson and Stevenson in the block, the ball finds itself in the hole with a good entry pass. Tennessee’s guards will have to defend against dribble penetration, while Wayne Chism, Brian Williams, Tyler Smith, and Emmenuel Negedu will have their hands full in the paint. The Chism/Patterson battle, if it materializes with matchup and foul issues possible, will be one of the best to watch in the SEC this year.
As for Meeks, I think Tennessee to a large degree will let him have his. I don’t think we’ll see him doubled and I’d be surprised to see any special defensive adjustments on his account. He will likely score 20+ points (especially considering UT’s weakness at wing) and Tennessee will try to limit the output of the supporting cast to whatever degree possible. Patterson is far more likely to receive special attention than Meeks.
Offensively Tennessee can’t be afraid to attack. Kentucky has very good shotblockers, but that’s all the more reason to go right at them and try to get them in foul trouble. Tennessee’s best finishers need to take the ball to the rim with strength and force contact– any weak stuff is going to be swatted. I am looking at Bobby Maze and Scotty Hopson in particular, as both have been a bit too prone to be blocked so far in the season. They will need to play smart while continuing to remain aggressive. It’s worth noting that shotblockers are prone to leaving their feet too much, so Tennessee may be able to do some damage on the offensive glass– an area where it excels.
How it will go down: The way I see it, Tennessee is at a crossroads. These are the games that Tennessee has to win at home if it expects to get a high seed in March. Lose a few like this and you become a more borderline tourney team and the Vols should expect to be better than that. This is an even matchup, so homefloor could be the difference . . . and I think it will be.
Wayne Chism has been an animal in recent games. I expect him to play Patterson to a near-stalemate, which would be a huge advantage for Tennessee. It would allow the Vols to press their advantage at other positions and force Jodie Meeks to carry a big load for Kentucky. As a matter of fact, don’t be surprise if Meeks throws up 20 shots or more in this game. How many he is able to knock down may keep Kentucky in it or even allow them to steal a win on the road, but I think he’s going to need a huge game if Patterson can’t dominate the block. My prediction: Vols 83, Kentucky 76 in 76 possessions.
Topic: Uncategorized | Tags: Game Previews
January 13th, 2009 at 8:28 am
After watching UK destroy Appy State and a few other patsies with disciplined defense and solid offensive execution, I expect UK to take advantage of the Vols inconsistent efforts on defense and steal a victory at TBA. UK is better than people think, as you correctly highlighted, and they are further along with than we are at this point. That said, I think we have the opportunity to return the favor as we grow and mature when we return to Rupp. Not many people win there, so that is a bold statement.
Meeks is phenomenal - a lot like Lofton. Patterson is a workhorse and their other post is the one who seems to rise up and play well against us. My perception is that they shoot the ball well - even without Meeks - from two - because they run their offense effectively. It is a simple one but well spaced and well designed. If you are steady on defense for the full 35 on every possession, you will win. If not, it could be a long game. Billy G is a good game coach, so our usual decided advantage on the sidelines isn’t as big as it is against other schools.
KY’s defense is solid, pressuring passes and disrupting, even if not generating enough turnovers. They disrupt enough to make people take bad shots late in the clock.
I really, really hope I am wrong because I grew up hating Kentucky and cheering against them in the NCAA’s. (Although I admit not knowing who to hate more when KY played Duke)
Kentucky is our single biggest rival in basketball and I’d love to be leading the series under BP after this game. If we play anything like we did against GA (inconsistent, half game), we will lose. If we turn in a Gtown by getting hot and playing D, we win.
I will be wearing Orange, cheering as loudly as anyone else reading, so don’t misinterpret realistic concern for lack of support. Go Vols!
January 13th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Good points, Pete, but I think you are a bit pessimistic. UK is a bit more under control and plays a more steady, disciplined game (especially defensively) but we have a decided advantage in athleticism from what I’ve seen. Stylewise, UK may be the sort of team that is always going to bother Bruce’s teams. But I think this game is even on a neutral floor and that UT has a decided advantage at home. The line is UT by 7 1/2 right now.
I HOPE you’re very wrong.
January 13th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
[...] a more in-depth preview and breakdown of tonight’s game, check out what RBK has to say over at the BruceBall Blog, as well as Joel’s thought’s at Rocky Top [...]
January 13th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
[...] a more in-depth preview and breakdown of tonight’s game, check out what RBK has to say over at the BruceBall Blog, as well as Joel’s thought’s at Rocky Top [...]