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2009 Rocky Top League Tips Off Tonight
By rbk | June 15, 2009
Like last year, I’m extremely disappointed not to be able to see any of the Rocky Top League in person this year. I will, however, be scouring the net for videos and reviews, and I anticipate that those in attendance will get a great show.
The first three games are tonight. At the link you can also find the team rosters, which will have several prominent former Vols in addition to the current players. Those of you that get to go, please report back and let us know how it goes!
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Okay, so I was wrong. Tyler is coming back
By rbk | June 11, 2009
Welcome back, Tyler!
http://www.govolsxtra.com/news/2009/jun/11/smith-announce-decision-today/
This is obviously huge for the team in ‘09-10. If Tyler can relax and just play his game, I think he can improve considerably on his junior season and his draft status, so it could be win-win for everyone.
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Quick Tuesday thoughts
By rbk | June 2, 2009
I don’t have a lot of time to write these days . . . I just completed another move. As the summer goes on my time will be freed up and we can ramp up for the 09-10 season. For now, just a few quick opinions/prognostications.
- Tyler Smith won’t come back. Whether it’s the NBA or Europe, he needs to start making money to support his family. As a UT fan I’d love to see him back in orange . . . but I will not blame him one bit if he doesn’t, and my guess is that’s the decision he’ll make.
- Scotty Hopson will be a man this year. He had flashes of brilliance on offense a year ago and became a much better defender, so with a year hitting weights and getting coached up, I think he’s going to have a breakout year. This is especially important if Tyler is gone.
- John Calipari will not get hit by any of the fallout from the Memphis test score scandal. He’ll remain clean as a whistle on paper and dirty as hell in the minds of all who follow. If I’m a Kentucky fan, this is my #1 concern. Yes, he’s a solid coach, and yes, he and WWW will bring in talent . . . but at what cost to UK down the road?
- Lane Kiffin is probably having a positive effect on UT basketball. I say this for two reasons: 1) because any mention Tennessee gets puts the name and the brand in recruits’ minds, and 2) because he makes Bruce look very sensible by comparison. Both are loud and brash but Kiffin’s style so far has really ticked people off. Bruce has been ridiculed for being a publicity hound but it looks mild when you think about the things Kiffin has said that became public.
- Wayne needs to have a big year, and probably will, but E-man and Kenny Hall need a lot of PT. We are losing a ton of players after this season and we need some young post players to be ready to step in. I’ll go out on a limb and say that as E-man’s development goes, so will go Tennessee in ‘10-’11. There are impact players in the ‘10 recruiting class but they will be backcourt players.
I hope you all are having a fantastic dead period. Keep checking in as summer goes by.
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Skylar McBee to walk on at UT
By rbk | May 7, 2009
This is a big coup for BruceBall, IMO. McBee, a standout at Grainger County High School in East Tennessee, is a long range gunner and is considered a combo guard. A two-star prospect, he turned down scholarship offers at Marshall and Santa Clara to try to earn a scholly at UT.
I like this for several reasons. With the APR crunch, we’re down a scholarship man, so picking up a very good walkon is good for our numbers. McBee also represents the type of player we all wish we had a year ago– the guy that could hit threes in bunches and be a zonebuster. Additionally, McBee has turned down scholarship offers for a chance to earn one at UT. That means the Vols mean more to him than just a place to play basketball, and as fans we always love that type of guy.
According to the article, Coach Pearl made no promises of playing time, but is offering an opportunity to compete and earn a scholarship. That this is enough for McBee tells me something about his competetive nature and desire to play for the Big Orange. McBee has a chance to be a solid contributor for us in the coming years and I am thrilled to have him.
Welcome to Big Orange Country, Skylar McBee!
Topics: Uncategorized | 2 Comments » | Tags: Recruiting
So let me get this straight
By rbk | May 6, 2009
If you have an athlete that graduates before his eligibility is up, starts doing graduate work, and doesn’t finish a graduate degree . . . you get your APR docked a point? Apparently so. That single point is going to cost BruceBall a scholly for next season: http://www.govolsxtra.com/news/2009/may/06/vols-lose-basketball-scholarship-after-falling-one/
Brandon Crump was that player, and he finished his elgibility before Coach Pearl ever arrived. He got his degree, enrolled in grad school, and got us docked a point for not getting his masters. If anything, shouldn’t programs be rewarded for getting players into graduate studies? I mean, the kid graduated. He finished school and got a Bachelor’s degree, which is more than most NCAA basketball players at the top levels do. Yet we get punished because he doesn’t finish the graduate degree he’s working on. The NCAA is truly absurd.
Now I’ll make two concessions . . . less player turnover would have gotten that point back for us regardless of Crump– it’s not like this situation alone cost us. Also, I understand that rules are rules and that a 924 APR is not a 925 APR, so the scholly has to go.
But this situation with Crump is beyond ridiculous. They dock you a point on Academic Progress for a guy who got his degree early and wanted to continue his education and basketball career. NCAA . . . I give you the finger.
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Bruce Pearl is getting married (and other randomness)
By rbk | May 4, 2009
Hello all. I’ve crawled out of my hole for the first time in awhile, and I hope for this to be the first of many summer posts. Life has been busy lately and a lot has happened in my personal life, but I think I’m ready to get back on the blogging horse and talk some BruceBall. Notice on the right a new element in the sidebar . . . this is rbk’s effort to keep up with the times. Coach Pearl is now “Twittering” (thanks to Professor Falken on H’ville for the heads-up) and I’ve set up his “Tweets” as RSS feeds so that my loyal readers can see what Bruce is up to. I’m limiting the list to the two most recent tweets but you can get a complete update by clicking on the header, which will link to his Twitter page. Please provide feedback on this content– if you like it, it will stay. If you think it’s useless, then I’ll remove it.
Bruce is now engaged to hottie Brandy Miller. I’m not one to talk about personal or gossip issues, but Coach made the announcement at a Big Orange Caravan stop so it’s all over the public domain now. There’s a KNS article here. Good luck, Bruce and Brandy. I wish you happiness.
Other random notes:
- Daniel West is definitely not going to be a Vol. This could be related, as cause, effect, or neither, to the Vols’ potential APR issues. We may be short a scholly yet again and this is directly related to all of the turnover. In a short time at UT a lot of players have come and gone–Jemere Hendrix prior to 05-06, Major Wingate prior to 06-07, Tony Passley and Marques Johnson prior to 07-08, Duke Crews and Ramar Smith prior to 08-09. Now there is some rumbling that big man Phillip Jurick may transfer as well. That’s a ton of people coming and going, partly for playing time issues (Johnson and potentially Jurick) but mostly for disciplinary reasons. This unfortunately hampers our APR, and eventually that takes a toll in the form of schollies. There simply isn’t room for West, though that may not be the only reason he won’t be here.
- I haven’t had the chance to mention Calipari and Kentucky. Ha! Talk about two camps that deserve each other. For what it’s worth, I like our chances in the UK series better with Calipari there. Our style matches up with his better than with the Tubby or Gillispie styles.
- I bet Tyler Smith comes back. He put too much on his shoulders this year and it hurt his draft status. With more experience on the wings and some good post players, I think Smith will be able to relax more and be more efficient, as he was in 07-08. That should help his stock.
- The sun rises, the sun sets, the earth turns, and J.P. Prince has shoulder surgery. It’s old hat for him now, but I feel bad for him. Something about his joints just isn’t right. I guess the odds of him improving his jumper just took another hit.
- So we signed Melvin Goins, a JC transfer point guard. I have mixed feelings about another JC guy, but it sounds like he brings two things that we need: true PG skills and a defensive attitude. He’s a speedy, smaller guard, someone with on-ball defensive skills that we badly need. He’s also more of a true point than Bobby Maze, J.P. Prince, and Josh Tabb, and perhaps the first true point since C.J. Watson graduated. Neither Marques Johnson nor Ramar Smith filled the role well either. So let’s hope this one works out and he’s a good complement to the team.
- This makes our roster for 09-10 the following:
PG: Bobby Maze, Melvin Goins
Wings: Scotty Hopson, Cameron Tatum, J.P. Prince, Josh Tabb, Renaldo Woolridge
Posts: Tyler Smith, Kenny Hall, Wayne Chism, Brian Williams, Emmanuel Negedu, Phillip Jurick (maybe)
That’s some seasoned vets (five seniors and two juniors if we add Steven Pearl) and some young guys with PT under their belts (Hopson, Tatum, Woolridge, Negedu). We’ll see how much Goins and Hall contribute in their first years, and whether Jurick sticks around. It’ll be interesting to see if the character of the team changes, as I think it was a tricky group for Pearl to teach a year ago.
It’s good to be back, guys. Don’t expect a plethora of posts over the summer, but I plan to provide some regular commentary. Stay tuned.
Topics: Uncategorized | 3 Comments » |
TBBB gone the way of the dodo? I think not
By rbk | April 4, 2009
I apologize to all the readers for the lack of updates, comments, maintenance, and the general sense that things have died here. It’s been a tough and trying time for the last month or so, and TBBB has simply taken a back seat.
With that said, I am not going away and neither is TBBB. I plan and expect to come back with a vengeance, hopefully with some great off-season discussion this summer. Just hang in there and don’t forget about me . . . I look forward to another season of analysis and discussion and hope to see you all back here again.
Topics: Uncategorized | 3 Comments » | Tags: Site info
Just checking in
By rbk | March 14, 2009
Hi BruceBall fans. I’m traveling in Arizona this week, which is why I haven’t been able to get on here and write about yesterday’s great game. I only saw parts of the game anyway, but from the box and reports it sounds like we were able to put it all together yesterday (well . . . except perimeter shooting).
Big game today. Is this the day we finally advance to the SEC tourney finals for the first time in what seems like forever? Auburn is a hot team but we are more talented. If we come out with the focus we showed yesterday we should win this game. Let’s hope that’s how it goes down.
I’ll be back home soon and will try to post about Selection Sunday at the very least.
Topics: Uncategorized | 4 Comments » |
Handicapping the SEC tournament, part 2
By rbk | March 10, 2009
One of the nice things about being a math nerd is that it helps you to quantify the chances of certain event happening, like the particular cases in may last post involving wins and losses by particular SEC basketball teams. If you know much about probability, you’ll recall that when you know the probability of two independent events happening, you can calculate the probability that both will happen. It’s this principle that allows me to calculate SEC tourney odds based on Kenpom’s pythag stat.
First of all, a disclaimer: these are not Vegas odds and probably differ from them considerably. For starters, these do not take into account trends or injuries, whereas Vegas would adjust for those. Using quantitative methods can be fun but there are limitations.
Now, some info on odds for each SEC team, in order of likelihood to win the tourney:
1. Tennessee
- probability of winning tourney: 22.4% (3.5-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 38.7%
- best draw: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia
- toughest draw: Vandy, Florida, LSU
2. LSU
- probability of winning tourney: 17.7% (4.7-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 34.1%
- best draw: Ole Miss, Georgia, Arkansas
- toughest draw: Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
3. South Carolina
- probability of winning tourney: 13.8% (6.2-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 29.9%
- best draw: Georgia, Ole Miss, Arkansas
- toughest draw: Mississippi State, LSU, Tennessee
4. Auburn
- probability of winning tourney: 12.6% (7.0-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 25.0%
- best draw: Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia
- toughest draw: Florida, Tennessee, LSU
5. Florida
- probability of winning tourney: 12.5% (7.0-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 22.8%
- best draw: Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia
- toughest draw: Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU
6. Kentucky
- probability of winning tourney: 10.1% (8.9-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 19.8%
- best draw: Ole Miss, LSU, Georgia, Arkansas
- toughest draw: Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee
7. Mississippi State
- probability of winning tourney: 4.6% (20.7-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 12.4%
- best draw: Georgia, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Arkansas
- toughest draw: Georgia, South Carolina, LSU, Tennessee
8. Vanderbilt
- probability of winning tourney: 3.8% (25.6-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 8.7%
- best draw: Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia
- toughest draw: Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, LSU
9. Alabama
- probability of winning tourney: 1.3% (74.7-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 3.8%
- best draw: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia
- toughest draw: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida, LSU
10. Ole Miss
- probability of winning tourney: 1.1% (89.9-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 3.5%
- best draw: Kentucky, LSU, Georgia, Arkansas
- toughest draw: Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee
11. Arkansas
- probability of winning tourney: 0.2% (452.8-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 1.0%
- best draw: Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia
- toughest draw: Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU
12. Georgia
- probability of winning tourney: 0.03% (3549.9-to-1 odds against)
- probability of making finals: 0.2%
- best draw: Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Arkansas
- toughest draw: Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee
Topics: Uncategorized | 5 Comments » | Tags: SEC tournament 2009
Handicapping the SEC tournament, part 1
By rbk | March 10, 2009
Overall, one has to say the Vols finished the season well. That clearly excludes an ugly speedbump with the loss to Alabama Sunday, but in general Tennessee did a good job of securing its place in the NCAA tourney and setting itself up for an SEC tourney run.
But I’d like to put my UT homer hat aside for a moment. Let’s take a look at the tourney pairings and odds to win.
Round 1
Ole Miss (W5) vs. Kentucky (E4)
As a Tennessee fan I’m just happy to see UK playing on Thursday and UT with a bye, especially after the Wildcats thoroughly dominated us twice. Kentucky is reeling, losing 8 of its last 11 and its last four games to close out the year. The Rebels didn’t exactly finish strong either, losing 5 of their last 8, but they did beat UK during the season.
Pythag predicts a 73-68 Kentucky win in 69 possessions, and has Ole Miss a 2.3-to-1 underdog (31% chance to win). With both teams fading down the stretch, I feel no need to adjust this. Kentucky advances.
Georgia (E6) vs. Mississippi State (W3)
UGA won 3 of its last 7 SEC contests, confidence builders for a team that looked as though it wouldn’t win any. MSU won its last two but lost 5 of 6 before that, spoiling its chance at a first round bye. MSU won the regular season matchup by six in Athens.
Pythag predicts a 72-63 win for Missisippi State in 71 possessions, with UGA a 4.7-to-1 underdog (18% chance to win). I think the odds are skewed by earlier season performance, and Georgia’s chances are a little better than calculated here. I would not be surprised to see UGA pull this one off, but I’ll stay with MSU to advance.
Vanderbilt (E5) vs. Alabama (W4)
Vandy won three in a row to finish the season, including a road win at league champ LSU. It also won 7 of its last 10 overall and appears to be playing better ball. Alabama closed on a high note with a win at Tennessee and won 4 of its final 5. This matchup seems diametrically opposed to the other 4 vs 5. matchup, with both teams riding strong finishes instead of slides. Vandy won the regular season matchup in Nashville.
Pythag predicts a 72-69 win for Vandy in 71 possessions, with Alabama a slight underdog at 1.4-to-1 (41% chance to win). I think this is very reasonable with the way the teams have been playing of late, and am calling this game essentially a tossup.
Arkansas (W6) vs. Florida (E3)
Neither team finished well, with Florida losing 5 of 8 and Arkansas winning just two games in SEC play. Florida is on the NCAA bubble now, and in my view needs at least two SEC tourney wins to get itself in. Luckily for them, Arkansas has had a miserable year and it looks like the Gators have a good shot at repeating the January result (a 15 point UF win).
Pythag predicts an 80-70 Florida win in 70 possessions, and shows Arkansas to be a 4.1-to-1 underdog (20% to win). Given this Florida team’s tendency to let games get away, don’t count the Razorbacks completely out– but I still see a Florida win.
Round 2
LSU (W1) vs. Ole Miss/Kentucky winner
LSU closed the season with a wimper, losing its final two games after a 13-1 league start. Looking at the season as a whole, LSU was clearly the most successful team . . . but pythag shows a matchup with UK being much closer. With all three teams fading down the stretch this may be the tourney’s most interesting game to predict.
Pythag shows LSU to be virtually even money (51% favorite) with Kentucky. If Ole Miss were to beat Kentucky, LSU would be a more substantial favorite (71% or 2.4-to-1). LSU seems most likely to get through here, and perhaps at the end of the regular season they were just on cruise control.
South Carolina (E2) vs. Georgia/Mississippi State winner
South Carolina was the surprise team in the East this year, competing for the E1 seed and falling just short. They did lose 3 of their last 6 but I didn’t see any signs that they were necessarily fading. The Cocks would certainly like to see UGA in this matchup; UGA didn’t get within 10 in either game with SC this season.
Pythag has South Carolina a substantial favorite (87%) over Georgia and a slight favorite (60% or 1.5-to-1) over Mississippi State. I like the Gamecocks in either matchup.
Tennessee (E1) vs. Vanderbilt/Alabama winner
Tennessee tied for the SEC East crown but won the tiebreak by virtue of a season sweep of South Carolina. The Vols went 3-3 down the stretch but seem to be playing better basketball overall.
Pythag has Tennessee a favorite over either team (73% to beat Alabama, 65% to beat Vandy). It’s tough to say who the Vols would rather face . . . Alabama, which would be a revenge game against an overall weaker team (but a team UT lost to) or Vandy, a game against an overall stronger team (but one that UT matches up well against). Either way, Tennessee’s SEC tourney struggles make one want to adjust the odds down a little.
Auburn (W2) vs. Arkansas/Florida winner
Auburn is the hot team in the SEC right now, winning 8 of 9 and beating both #1 seeds in the process. On the bubble now, Auburn could use a win (or two) to put itself in a position for an NCAA tourney bid– motivation enough. Florida, if it makes it to this game, will have that same motivation.
Pythag has Auburn a slight underdog (46% chance) to Florida and a big favorite (78%) over Arkansas. Considering Auburn’s tourney aspirations, they may actually want to see Florida here as a chance to enhance their resume. Arkansas will not help them except in the win column. Besides, Auburn is simply playing better than UF right now, and the odds are skewed by the teams’ early performances, which run strongly against the trends. I like Auburn in this game to get into the NCAAs.
Round 3 and beyond
Once round 3 arrives, all bets are off. There could be a new hot team, and any one of the top seeds could find itself gone by this point. In lieu of further breakdown, I’ll discuss the chances of each team winning in another post.
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